Follow up Update on Sith Raid Rewards - 4/12/18 [MEGA]

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LocalHero
146 posts Member
edited April 2018
Original Dev Post
CG_Carrie wrote:

Hey all,
Posting again today because I wanted to simplify yesterday's message and try to be more clear, and also because I said I would in the comment's of yesterday's thread.

Let me clarify as clearly as possible the intention of the Sith Raid Reward changes:

At an aggregate level (meaning total for the guild but not necessarily for every individual in it), we wanted to boost the rewards that all members of the guild were acquiring, while addressing some quality of life asks (namely the removal of challenge gear).

The glaring exception that arose from this change was in the Sith Heroic Tier which over the long run is going to be among the most valuable set of rewards in the game. However, in order for this to be true, it will require:
  • The value of Darth Traya to be realized
  • The exclusive new Gear XII 5/6 pieces and
  • Time for players to master the raid.
Furthermore our stopgap solution to drop lots of full pieces of Gear XII until such time that the above criteria was met - was a fundamentally unhealthy decision on our part. You worked really hard to get these rewards, and even though we are confident that you will like the long term picture of mastering this raid, we haven't earned that with you yet.

I am personally responsible for this decision, and for that I sincerely apologize for the missed expectations. We effectively made half of a change in order to address the quality of life asks, without the corresponding change to fill in the missing desired rewards.

However, many of the posted screenshots represent an incomplete picture of what the rewards will look like over the long run. Because there is a degree of chance involved, it is possible to see extreme swings in the before and after, despite that not being indicative of the average result.

It was my intention today to post the before and after reward value for the Sith Raid based on the game data to quell some of the concerns about the value of the rewards dropping.

However, based on feedback we need more time to explain the nuances in a way that is straightforward, succinct, and most importantly accurate. We will make every effort to post it before the weekend and will keep you updated.

Thank you for being a dedicated part of the community.
And as always we'll see you on the holotables,
-Carrie

Replies

  • Is sucks. Really we open t6 and rewards are sucks . Your update is Would not it be better than the old one? My guildmate 40m
    damaging, but the rewards are garbage.
  • Raid rewards for the sith raid are awful in tier 6 or lower
  • Over under 21.5 minutes before this gets moved to “off topic” thread. Taking bets now
  • I'll take that action...1000 crystals says it gets merged into one of the mega thread.
  • I love the spread sheet peeps! Great work @Maegor
  • "we do not like criticism so we have deleted your post"

    Great analysis, as someone who wasn't doing hsith the incentive is purely for traya shards now the gear drops are so much worse
  • @Maegor , there is no reason to bring (or presume ) logic and common sense into any discussion about what is done in this game... exercise in futility, it is!
  • There's definitely a 100% chance of TVRM or whatever sliding in to complain about how it's not statistically accurate.
  • Fredy5
    177 posts Member
    When Greed rules..... They can x2 all their drop that their would still be a gear crunch when you would need a month just to play with a toons you unlocked....
  • @maegor while I applaud your efforts, this will fall on deaf ears. CG and it’s affiliates do not care if they obfuscate the truth, they do not care if they lie, they do not care if they promise one thing and deliver the opposite.
    The way this plays out reminds of the scene from galaxy quest when the aliens learn about deception. “We are just learning of deception, Saris would promise us mercy only to deliver destruction, it’s a lesson we have learned at great cost.”
    Guess who the aliens are and who represents Saris.
  • TVF
    14947 posts Member
    See, now this is the kind of constructive analysis I can get behind.
    TVF's guild is recruiting. Say hi in our Discord! https://discord.gg/AmStGTH
  • 1 hour and post still alive. That's a record
  • Maegor wrote: »
    I compiled screen shots of the old raid rewards and the new raid rewards for the Heroic Sith Raid and came to the conclusions listed below.

    Sample Sizes of Old Drops:
    Rank 1-3: 20
    Rank 4-10: 14
    Rank 11-20: 13
    Rank 21-30: 16
    Rank 31-40: 13
    Rank 41-50: 11

    Sample Size of New Boxes: 31

    Assumptions: That in the new system all full pieces in the loot table have an equal chance of dropping, at both the 100% promised drop rate and the current and further down the line future.

    Clarifications: G12 GET piece cost = 5,600 GET. When rancor piece is talked about, I am using an mk3 carb as the baseline piece.

    Under the promised 100% drop rate in the new system:
    oaJfmvG.png
    • All ranks 15 or greater take a loss when pieces are converted to their GET and Guild Currency equivalent (cost to purchase from the store).
    • Ranks 16-30 are basically a wash on guild currency while taking about 1/3 of a g12 piece's value loss
    • Rank 31-40 are gaining 1/2 of a rancor piece from the guild store and losing about 1/3 of a g12 piece
    • Rank 41-50 are gaining about 3/4 of a rancor piece from the guild store and losing about 1/8 of a g12 piece
    • Total loss for the guild: GET = 106,939; Guild Currency = 726
    • Average loss per member: GET = 2,138; Guild Currency = 14

    Under the current and future planned 40% full piece drop rate:
    Guwu0Oq.png
    • All ranks taking a loss in GET and Guild Currency
    • Rank 1-3 are losing over a full piece of g12 gear (about 1.25 piece loss) and a little over 4 rancor pieces
    • Rank 3-10 are losing about 3/4 of a g12 piece and a little over 1.5 rancor pieces
    • Rank 11-20 are losing about half of a g12 piece and almost a full rancor piece
    • Rank 31-40 are losing about half of a g12 piece and about 1/3 of a rancor piece
    • Rank 41-50 are losing about 1/4 of a g12 piece and taking a small loss on guild currency equivalents
    • Total loss for the guild: GET = 148939; Guild Currency = 129,526
    • Average loss per member: GET = 2,978; Guild Currency = 2,590

    This certainly does not reflect how I interpret when @CG_Carrie said in an April 2 post that "Given the difficult of the raid, we will be increasing the rewards a bit" nor does it match "To our Heroic raiders: please take some time over the next couple of weeks and take a look at the aggregate GP lift among your guildmates... and the rate of growth in ALL players' ability to complete the raid, over the coming weeks". This represents a total loss for the guild in both scenarios, and the only gain can be seen in the 100% drop rate scenario for members that get rank 31+ (and even then only in guild currency since they are still losing GET equivalence).

    Now, we are getting g12.5 gear added and that loot will be added to the loot tables. The only way that gear being added makes up for the current losses in GET under the 40% full drop rate scenario (since they have been said to come at the same time in May) is if we a) get between 35 and 40 pieces of salvage AND b) it has the same GET cost as the current g12 gear. In my opinion, both of those are very unlikely.

    @CG_Carrie @CG_SaIera @CG_TopHat and any other CG employee that this is pertinent to, if you have any data that shows my tables above are incorrect please provide. Also, if you don't want to provide hard data, you can provide drop rates under the new loot system and old loot system and I will happily calculate the expected value of gains or losses for guilds and members.

    Getting into my personal opinion of the changes, I can understand if CG thinks the original boxes dropped too much loot. I can swallow that from a business perspective. What I can't quite comprehend are statements that this is better for our guilds in the long term, when it obviously isn't.

    I welcome any dev comments that challenges the validity of this analysis.

    Well done! You need to work for CG.
    #CloneHelmets4Life...VICTORY!!!! :smiley: "I don't like sand. It's coarse and rough and irritating and it gets everywhere."
  • @Maegor Thank you for compiling the data. It is very informative. I agree it would be great to get some clarification from the Devs.
  • JPBrunel
    821 posts Member
    edited April 2018
    Fantastic work @Maegor! There you go @CG_Carrie @CG_Kozispoon! That's all the "reviewing" you should need. Now roll back to the old system until you can figure out a way to ACTUALLY IMPROVE our rewards as you said you would do...
  • Great work @Maegor. Your ultimate point really needs to be driven home because it stands in the face of the supposed push towards more transparency and honesty.

    Maegor wrote: »
    What I can't quite comprehend are statements that this is better for our guilds in the long term, when it obviously isn't.

  • Vorgen
    253 posts Member
    While I do appreciate the concrete evidence OP has provided to prove the new reward system is much worse, but did anyone with any common sense not think it was a massive nerf? It has become obvious that CG had intended to nerf heroic rewards all along. All that were said leading up to the actual implementation were all flat out lies.

    This whole fiasco would have been a lot easier to swallow had CG just honestly told us they were going to nerf sith rewards from the start. It’s the lies along the way that make people want to burn your house down.
  • Developers of these games lie, cheat, and manipulate people with addictive personalities.
    I loved playing this game, less and less lately to be honest. I almost look forward to the day when the government starts looking over your shoulder and regulates you out of business.
    And that comes from someone that hates big government.
  • I think the point of this post was to clearly point out the lies of the devs and moderators in regards to rewards being "an improvement" overall and their claim that they needed two weeks to analyze the problem and to fix it. Every one of us knows it was a massive nerf, yet we still have the devs claiming otherwise.
  • StarSon
    3646 posts Member
    What an “improvement”; just got my first 1st place finish, and the gear rewards were worse than hAAT. For as much effort as it takes to do that (we finished with 15 minutes left on the timer), this is absolutely insulting.

    10 cuff pieces, 10 mk7 generator pieces, 8 mk6 carb pieces, and 8 mk10 circle things. It feels just awful to have stressed over this raid for 2 full days for such absolute bollocks.
  • Jeric
    259 posts Member
    edited April 2018
    @Maegor hats off to you. A paired data hypothesis test indicates that we cannot reject your claim that there is a net loss in most instances, so even that test shows your approach has merit.

    Value added thread indeed!
  • Subbing for responses to this thread. Work well done deserves a response of equal or better data + reasoning, though I solidly doubt there is any of true value. We shall see
  • Well done @Maegor Thanks for putting the work in to compile this.

    I hope this gets a response from the devs.
  • Swordd
    161 posts Member
    The only issue here is that the data weren't gathered randomly, unless I am missing something. People taking the time to post their heroic rewards now are likely doing it because they feel they are exceptionally bad.

    I am not knocking the overall point at all. I am not in a heroic sith guild but I can imagine how mad I would be right now if I was. However, there is likely bias in the data collection here. Maybe not enough to change the conclusion, but worth mentioning. Data from the devs, or a more random sampling of new data (i.e. assign 25 people before raid payout to submit screenshots after payout), would alleviate the issue.
  • Jedi_Bane
    309 posts Member
    edited April 2018
    First off, good job @Maegor for all your hard work. You deserve respect for this impressive chart and all your data gathering.

    Howeve, i believe we are forgetting something important: there is no more challenge gear in this raid! I know quantities have gone down but overall quality has improved!

    (My guild only runs t4 and t5 so if i am way off base on heroic rewards I apologize)
  • Based Maegor is based.
  • Jeric
    259 posts Member
    Swordd wrote: »
    The only issue here is that the data weren't gathered randomly, unless I am missing something. People taking the time to post their heroic rewards now are likely doing it because they feel they are exceptionally bad.

    I am not knocking the overall point at all. I am not in a heroic sith guild but I can imagine how mad I would be right now if I was. However, there is likely bias in the data collection here. Maybe not enough to change the conclusion, but worth mentioning. Data from the devs, or a more random sampling of new data (i.e. assign 25 people before raid payout to submit screenshots after payout), would alleviate the issue.

    I would mind seeing that second approach used, but the best method would be finding a guild who recorded everything before and recorded everything after. Absent that, getting a true simple random sample is unfortunately out of the reach for most here.

    What is more important to me is that CG is now in a position to have to respond in kind or it would have the appearance that the OP hit the nail on the head irrespective of the sample collection method. Since Maegor invited them to do just that ... I'm eagerly awaiting their response.
  • Very nice. Great Job. It shows clearly that CG tried to sell us an improved economy on their side (less distribution) and a reduction on the guilds side as a falsely advertised increase in the hope players get lost innthe various amounts of rewards type. That even after the planned update the reward amount remains lower than before is the next low.

    It will not happen but I would like to see from CG a proof that in total economics the rewards are improved like promised. Only then it can be accepted that for example g12 drops less.
  • The fact that we still have to worry about carbantis and cuffs is beyond me
This discussion has been closed.