Double Droprates? [MERGE]

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    The only joke is this thread. You had poor rng. Something EVERYONE has experienced. Man if people posted cry threads after every poor RNG run, this forum would be unreadable.
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    Mr_Sausage wrote: »
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    The only joke is this thread. You had poor rng. Something EVERYONE has experienced. Man if people posted cry threads after every poor RNG run, this forum would be unreadable.

    maybe if you read a little bit better and more in this thread then you would have read that we concluded that the RNG in drops is massively different per player since the double drops
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    TVF wrote: »
    Lol this thread every time.

    Yup I knew when I woke up that I’d see this thread lol.
    Same here.

    As a maths teacher it’s clear that me and my fellow professionals need to raise our game when teaching statistics.
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    jurian wrote: »
    Mr_Sausage wrote: »
    2oq4grucqa8w.png
    The only joke is this thread. You had poor rng. Something EVERYONE has experienced. Man if people posted cry threads after every poor RNG run, this forum would be unreadable.

    maybe if you read a little bit better and more in this thread then you would have read that we concluded that the RNG in drops is massively different per player since the double drops

    Yes and no. RNG is exactly what the first letter represents—Random. If one takes the theoretical probability that has been stated by multiple people in multiple threads in the forum (33%) too literally, one might think that their experimental probability is evidence of a broken system. If I flipped a coin 50 times and I only got tails 15 times, does that mean my coin is broken?

    I understand the frustration with a lack of luck with your shard drops this weekend. But that same frustration has always been here in this game, whether we are given double drops or not. We aren’t being hoodwinked. Keep at it. You’ll hit a few in a row.
  • Vendi1983
    5024 posts Member
    edited November 2018
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    jurian wrote: »
    Mr_Sausage wrote: »
    2oq4grucqa8w.png
    The only joke is this thread. You had poor rng. Something EVERYONE has experienced. Man if people posted cry threads after every poor RNG run, this forum would be unreadable.

    maybe if you read a little bit better and more in this thread then you would have read that we concluded that the RNG in drops is massively different per player since the double drops

    From a sample size of two pages and maybe at most a dozen screenshots? I think not. Please see the above two posts.

    And if that doesn't help, then read this:

    CONFIRMATION BIAS

    Enjoy the double drops!
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    TVF wrote: »
    Lol this thread every time.

    Yup I knew when I woke up that I’d see this thread lol.
    Same here.

    As a maths teacher it’s clear that me and my fellow professionals need to raise our game when teaching statistics.

    This guy gets it. ➕➖➗✖️
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    jurian wrote: »
    Mr_Sausage wrote: »
    2oq4grucqa8w.png
    The only joke is this thread. You had poor rng. Something EVERYONE has experienced. Man if people posted cry threads after every poor RNG run, this forum would be unreadable.

    maybe if you read a little bit better and more in this thread then you would have read that we concluded that the RNG in drops is massively different per player since the double drops

    Lol. Who’s we? You mean you concluded. What I can conclude from this thread is that some people have had good runs and some people haven’t. Just like regular drops.
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    So this is not a complaint because I am cleaning house on Vet shards in Cantina, but a question.

    In Cantina I get the gold "bonus" highlighting on the shards I get. But in the LS/DS battles everything EXCEPT the shards earned has the bonus highlighting. Does that mean anything? Will I see the bonus highlighting for LS/DS shards in some cases? Seems like I've seen screenshots in this thread where some have the shards highlighted and some don't.
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    jurian wrote: »
    Mr_Sausage wrote: »
    2oq4grucqa8w.png
    The only joke is this thread. You had poor rng. Something EVERYONE has experienced. Man if people posted cry threads after every poor RNG run, this forum would be unreadable.

    maybe if you read a little bit better and more in this thread then you would have read that we concluded that the RNG in drops is massively different per player since the double drops

    Hahaha it has nothing to do with the double drops... this is the definition of what RNG is.
  • Xenos21true
    20 posts Member
    edited November 2018
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    Double drops bugged
    If you go via find to normsl/hard node you fill not get double drop for item you look. If you go directly to this node it will work. But I had issues with navigation.
    This event really bugged...
    Only csntina works
    Post edited by Xenos21true on
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    I've had great drops
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    Because quite a few people seem to be expecting piles of shards to fall from the sky, that's why. Whatever you'd normally get on an average day of farming just expect to double it.

    If you happen to get a bad run on your first set of crystal refreshes and only get 0-6 shards (during double) from 8-10 sims then that's just poor RNG. Has nothing to do with an adjusted drop rate or manipulation by the devs "just because it's double drop time".
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    I wish it was double drops with 3x drop rates! It's the later part that really would help us. I did the Fleet battle for Bistan's U-Wing, and without a refresh sunk all my energy, and not a single shard.
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    Working fine here
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    Same question: only 5 shards from Bossk today over 16 attempts.

    That’s 30% drop rate, no different from the average I’ve been tracking.

    Won’t be spending anymore crystals on this.

    How have you got five shards when everything is dropping in multiples of two?

    Are your nodes yellow? That's the indicator the event is active in your county.

    Double drops doesn't mean double drop rate, it means double rewards for what you get each sim. And 30%/33% is the tracked drop rate anyway.

    You both have a good point here:
    1 - the 5 should be impossible in double drops so something else is going on here
    2 - the ‘rate’ depends on who is interpreting the idea of the rate - be it # shards per attempt, or # occurrence of shards per attempt. When it’s normal drops, it’s 1:1 anyway so we don’t notice, but if you measure rate as #shards, then over the average, all players, as a group, should be getting 60% as it’s a 30% occurrence x2 shards.

    I was actually thinking earlier about this: the psychological effect of the drops. I know that really three days of double drops are only really cutting 3 days off my regular farm, but the feeling of seeing a good drop on an attempt (my best today being 4 shard/3 attempts) is a huge morale boost.

    Makes sense it’s a double edged sword - if you’re having a bad drop day during this period, it feels disproportionately worse.

    I find the same thing when I hit certain milestones while farming: I always feel amazing when I start in on the 7th star, even though there’s still about 1/3 of the way to go. And I always hate it when i get in the 90s because it’s so close yet so far. Especially when you hit that inevitable run of bad luck. I just finished T3 last week and I think it took something like 5 days to get the last 3-4 shards, with refreshes.

    Last thing to say: was happy to get the darth maul shards to have some nice, cheap shard shop currency, but am skipping the qui-gon shards because the idea of going through the rest of my time with this game with 300 GW currency gives me a cold sweat... ;)

    TL;DR - it’s not so much math as it is psychology...
  • TVF
    36606 posts Member
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    Bonus drops: Complain they aren't double drops
    Double drops: Complain they don't drop enough
    Free carb, cuff, shards, credits, slicing, zeta: Complain no stun gun

    Sad.
    I need a new message here. https://discord.gg/AmStGTH
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    TVF wrote: »
    Bonus drops: Complain they aren't double drops
    Double drops: Complain they don't drop enough
    Free carb, cuff, shards, credits, slicing, zeta: Complain no stun gun

    Sad.

    Nailed it.
  • JaggedJ
    1352 posts Member
    edited November 2018
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    Done triple refreshes in cantina both days.

    T3 has gone from 27/30 to 2/85 and still with time to go.

    I won't complain about 70+ shards in 2 days on a single character.
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    That's only 5 shards. Or do you mean 2/85?
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    enlguy wrote: »
    How nice... anyone else notice the RNG for character shards seems to be particularly bad now that we're getting double drops? Going 0/10 on nodes I've never gone more than 0/3 on before. Seems double drops means twice as hard to get a single drop. Just blew through my refreshes. But I bet CG will try to sell me on the crystal discount now.

    I noticed that it is easier to get gear now... but of course, you need crystals. 14 battles for kru only got 8 shards of him and his ship.
    "When life gives you lemons, throw them at someone"
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    Vendi1983 wrote: »
    That's only 5 shards. Or do you mean 2/85?

    lol yeah, my bad. 2/85. Fixed.
  • APX_919
    2468 posts Member
    edited November 2018
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    Vendi1983 wrote: »
    Because quite a few people seem to be expecting piles of shards to fall from the sky, that's why. Whatever you'd normally get on an average day of farming just expect to double it.

    If you happen to get a bad run on your first set of crystal refreshes and only get 0-6 shards (during double) from 8-10 sims then that's just poor RNG. Has nothing to do with an adjusted drop rate or manipulation by the devs "just because it's double drop time".

    "I simmed 456 battles using all of my crysyals and only got 456 shards...double drops my posterior!" /s
    Post edited by APX_919 on
    "Everything is proceeding as I have foreseen...mostly"
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    Huzzah!
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    APX_919 wrote: »
    Vendi1983 wrote: »
    Because quite a few people seem to be expecting piles of shards to fall from the sky, that's why. Whatever you'd normally get on an average day of farming just expect to double it.

    If you happen to get a bad run on your first set of crystal refreshes and only get 0-6 shards (during double) from 8-10 sims then that's just poor RNG. Has nothing to do with an adjusted drop rate or manipulation by the devs "just because it's double drop time".

    "I simmed 456 battles using all of my crysyals and only got 456 shards...double drops my posterior!"

    So you got shards every other battle.

  • Kokie
    1338 posts Member
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    I have had great drops today so no complaints from me.....always someone going to get some bad rng but tomorrow could be completely different for you...just take the perks when u can get them and be happy....tomorrow I might get squat but I will still be happy
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    Kokie wrote: »
    I have had great drops today so no complaints from me.....always someone going to get some bad rng but tomorrow could be completely different for you...just take the perks when u can get them and be happy....tomorrow I might get squat but I will still be happy

    Are we allow to wish the event ran bit longer?
  • Gorem
    1190 posts Member
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    Should I feel bad that over these 2 days already I have gotten over 50 Vet Chewy shards?
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    I got 22 mission shards for 21 sims, which is way better than 30% (over 50% droprate). I then went 2 for 16 for jolee. mileage varies.
    The drop rate is the same, but how invested you are in them has greatly increased with the double rewards, so what was a minor irritation going 0/8 or 1/8 yesterday is now a lot more infuriating today.
    xSWCr - Nov '15 shard - swgoh.gg kalidor-m
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    I fully get that it’s double rewards, not double probability btw, and in all fairness....

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