New Character shard drop rates

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dcbfan
114 posts Member
edited September 18
Hey was wondering if anyone know if drop rates for shards on new characters are different then older ones? I have been farming Chewpio since day 1 farm able free to play. I have only gotten 5 shards total. Most days I get 0 shards. I think 5 shards in 2 weeks is a bit terrible. In turn also farming Geo BA and getting around a 50% shard pull. It just seems like you pull way more shards the older a character is in game.

Replies

  • dcbfan wrote: »
    Then you tell me why for 2 weeks I have hit Chewpio for 5 battles a day for 14+ days now and only gotten 5 shards. Thats 70+ attempts and only gotten 5 shards. No way is that a 33% drop rate.

    Bad RNG man, RNG Jesus giveth, RNG Jesus taketh away, my guild mate got 13 shards of chewy and 3p0 today from 15 attempts, yesterday he got 1 from 15
  • Your doing the math wrong try the CG formula.
    5 shards divided by .33 = 15 attempts. All the other attempts you are calculating for don't count
  • Vendi1983
    4229 posts Member
    edited September 18
    I only do the 5 a day since he went on the table, and everything else is going to GL tickets DS. I'm at 21/30, which is 30%.

    It's just you having bad RNG.
  • Vendi1983
    4229 posts Member
    edited September 18
    Hundreds of thousands of character shard sims have borne this conclusion.

    I personally tracked over 4,000 cantina attempts over a year ago. Varying energy costs, too. You know what? It came out to 36% give or take a few decimal points.
  • dcbfan wrote: »
    Kyno wrote: »
    The drop rate for shards on any node is 33%.

    You can track your data to prove this out. Thia has been done by many players to prove this is the drop rate.

    I will track it this but if it doesnt start dropping at 100% drop rate soon. There is no way this will be averaged to a 33% drop rate. Right now it's at a 7% drop rate.

    I would like to see the data of this so called 33% drop rate. I still believe CG limits the dropmrate on new characters to 5% or less. That is why it takes 6 months to farm a character.

    Then why are other people getting different outcomes on the new toons than you? I'm also f2p.

    4z298daoxvoc.png
  • Bad runs happen. On average over the entire farm it should balance out close to 33%. But even then, only 1,000 sims is hardly a large sample size when dealing with statistics.
  • dcbfan wrote: »
    Hey was wondering if anyone know if drop rates for shards on new characters are different then older ones? I have been farming Chewpio since day 1 farm able free to play. I have only gotten 5 shards total. Most days I get 0 shards. I think 5 shards in 2 weeks is a bit terrible. In turn also farming Geo BA and getting around a 50% shard pull. It just seems like you pull way more shards the older a character is in game.

    While your RNG sucks, it's still statistically possible. You are out in the three standard deviation range which should only happen about 3% of the time. As a general one standard deviation rule you should have gotten between 15 and 30 shards in your 70 attempts. I have tracked all kinds of shard drop rates for a wide range of toons and the drop rate all tracks to being 33% according to probabilities and statistics regardless of what conspiracy theory you think you have the math proves the 33% drop rate.
  • dcbfan wrote: »
    Kyno wrote: »
    The drop rate for shards on any node is 33%.

    You can track your data to prove this out. Thia has been done by many players to prove this is the drop rate.

    I will track it this but if it doesnt start dropping at 100% drop rate soon. There is no way this will be averaged to a 33% drop rate. Right now it's at a 7% drop rate.

    I would like to see the data of this so called 33% drop rate. I still believe CG limits the dropmrate on new characters to 5% or less. That is why it takes 6 months to farm a character.

    Or you just aren't good at math. At a 33% drop rate and only doing 5 attempts a day you get on average 1.66 shards a day. To go from marque to 7 star you need 280 shards. Getting the 1.66 shards a day it takes 167 days to get 280 shards. 167 days is about 5.5 months.

    A 5% drop rate would take 37 months to farm a character with no refreshes.
  • It’s 33% accept it or track your data, every time you use energy on his node you Wrote down how much energy/attempts and the results. But don’t make up results (like you made up you are farming his node for 14+ days)
  • dcbfan wrote: »
    Kyno wrote: »
    The drop rate for shards on any node is 33%.

    You can track your data to prove this out. Thia has been done by many players to prove this is the drop rate.

    I will track it this but if it doesnt start dropping at 100% drop rate soon. There is no way this will be averaged to a 33% drop rate. Right now it's at a 7% drop rate.

    I would like to see the data of this so called 33% drop rate. I still believe CG limits the dropmrate on new characters to 5% or less. That is why it takes 6 months to farm a character.

    Or you just aren't good at math. At a 33% drop rate and only doing 5 attempts a day you get on average 1.66 shards a day. To go from marque to 7 star you need 280 shards. Getting the 1.66 shards a day it takes 167 days to get 280 shards. 167 days is about 5.5 months.

    A 5% drop rate would take 37 months to farm a character with no refreshes.

    Exactly this.
  • "at this rate" is not a rate, you haven't tracked anything. I bet you'll swear you did 5x each day, but given how slippery your understanding of how stats work, I will have doubts unless you put down exact numbers that you claim are tracked on all attempts.
  • Kyno
    25945 posts Moderator
    dcbfan wrote: »
    Ok, if Chewpio has been F2P for 9 days that's 45 attempts. I have gotten 5 shards in 9 days. That's a 1 in 9 gets a shard. If I only get 5 shards every 9 day 45 attempts. 5 shards into 280 is 56. 56 times 9 equals is 504 days. At this rate it will take almost 1yr and half before 7 stars. If this is bad RNG then I must have really bad RNG luck. As far as GEO BA I do 7 attempts a day (112) and get at 3 shards a day. A lot of days i get 4 or 5. I will keep track of this and will update when Any of my new characters hit 7*. Currently farming Mando, Brood Alpha, Cara, Greef, both y wings and Chewpio. Bet I can 7* BA and my next cantina farm (Chomo) before any of the new characters get to 7.

    That's not the way statistics works.

    You are extrapolating from the drops you remember, and calling that "the rate". Just track your data and come back after you have actually recorded your data like others have done.

    I highly doubt that you are farming GBA at that rate, have you been recording this, or is that just what you remember?
  • Also this typical understanding of evening out has problems. The system will never try to even your rates to some rate, it will just have ups and downs which will average to a mean over the long term. Fully farming a marquee character should take around 280*3=840 attempts at the assumed %33 rate. This will also vary, albeit not too greatly.
  • dcbfan wrote: »
    Ok, if Chewpio has been F2P for 9 days that's 45 attempts. I have gotten 5 shards in 9 days. That's a 1 in 9 gets a shard. If I only get 5 shards every 9 day 45 attempts. 5 shards into 280 is 56. 56 times 9 equals is 504 days. At this rate it will take almost 1yr and half before 7 stars. If this is bad RNG then I must have really bad RNG luck. As far as GEO BA I do 7 attempts a day (112) and get at 3 shards a day. A lot of days i get 4 or 5. I will keep track of this and will update when Any of my new characters hit 7*. Currently farming Mando, Brood Alpha, Cara, Greef, both y wings and Chewpio. Bet I can 7* BA and my next cantina farm (Chomo) before any of the new characters get to 7.

    Bad rng likely won't stay that way for a whole farm so it'll take less time than that.

    And you get enough free energy to do 10 cantina attempts a day even on a 16 energy node. So they go twice as fast as a single hard node just from the extra attempts.
  • I tracked it myself a while ago and found a 35% overall drop rate. I did get a long run of bad RNG with Greef. I started Cara and Greef at the same time and refreshed each node three times. I finished Cara, but it took another week and a half to finish Greef. So bad runs happen.
  • Calo_Nord wrote: »
    DadKev wrote: »
    dcbfan wrote: »
    Hey was wondering if anyone know if drop rates for shards on new characters are different then older ones? I have been farming Chewpio since day 1 farm able free to play. I have only gotten 5 shards total. Most days I get 0 shards. I think 5 shards in 2 weeks is a bit terrible. In turn also farming Geo BA and getting around a 50% shard pull. It just seems like you pull way more shards the older a character is in game.

    While your RNG sucks, it's still statistically possible. You are out in the three standard deviation range which should only happen about 3% of the time. As a general one standard deviation rule you should have gotten between 15 and 30 shards in your 70 attempts. I have tracked all kinds of shard drop rates for a wide range of toons and the drop rate all tracks to being 33% according to probabilities and statistics regardless of what conspiracy theory you think you have the math proves the 33% drop rate.
    I admire your faith that the OP will follow this explanation.

    For a start, he claims to have farmed Chewpio since he became farmable “for 14+ days”. This is quite the achievement, given that he has only been farmable for 9 days.

    So, straight away we’re talking 45 attempts max, not 70.

    Secondly, he claims to have “around 50%” on GBA. I know a completely made up stat when I see one.

    This is the latest in a long line of drop rate conspiracy posts, that ticks all the usual boxes:

    - vague data
    - Incorrect data
    - small sample set

    @dcbfan you need to track your data accurately, and for more than 9 days (which is not 14+ days).

    82% of all statistics are made up on the spot.

    Show your data! 😉
  • dcbfan wrote: »
    Kyno wrote: »
    The drop rate for shards on any node is 33%.

    You can track your data to prove this out. Thia has been done by many players to prove this is the drop rate.

    I will track it this but if it doesnt start dropping at 100% drop rate soon. There is no way this will be averaged to a 33% drop rate. Right now it's at a 7% drop rate.

    I would like to see the data of this so called 33% drop rate. I still believe CG limits the dropmrate on new characters to 5% or less. That is why it takes 6 months to farm a character.

    That’s not how RNG or averages work. Each sim has a 33% chance for a shard. It doesn’t matter if you do 1 or 500 sims at once, each one is still 33%. So there’s still a chance to get 0/500.

    Also, search the forums and find out how many people have the same self-described issue and then read all the same answers that are on this thread. Or search for that one page that has literally millions of documented sims that show the shard drop rate is around 33%.

    You’ll be fine. 5 sims a day will take a long time. That’s how it works for everybody.
  • dcbfan wrote: »
    Ok, if Chewpio has been F2P for 9 days that's 45 attempts. I have gotten 5 shards in 9 days. That's a 1 in 9 gets a shard. If I only get 5 shards every 9 day 45 attempts. 5 shards into 280 is 56. 56 times 9 equals is 504 days. At this rate it will take almost 1yr and half before 7 stars. If this is bad RNG then I must have really bad RNG luck. As far as GEO BA I do 7 attempts a day (112) and get at 3 shards a day. A lot of days i get 4 or 5. I will keep track of this and will update when Any of my new characters hit 7*. Currently farming Mando, Brood Alpha, Cara, Greef, both y wings and Chewpio. Bet I can 7* BA and my next cantina farm (Chomo) before any of the new characters get to 7.

    You're farming too much. Spending the 25 crystals for one node refresh is well worth it.
  • dcbfan wrote: »
    All right I will keep track and write everything down. How many characters do I need to farm for you all to stop trying to call out my stats? I'm currently farming Mando, Cara, Greef, Geo BA, Poe, both Y wings, relic mats & some gear in ships. As soon as I'm done with BA it will be Chomo. Is that enough of a sample for all you doubter? Still guarantee that I will finish both BA (47 left) and all of Chomo (80 shards not activated) before even 1 of my newer characters are done. Chewpio at 5/3, Cara at 52/65, Greef at 0/85, Mando at 48/85, Poe at 138/25, BTL-B Ywing at 58/85, Rebel Ywing at 45/65. You have my numbers as of this moment 5pm pacific time all farming done for the day. Start my farming day at 11pm. With 5 Cara battles, 5 Poe battles, 3 relic battles, 5 Mando battles. Then at 11am I go with 5 Chewpio battles, 7 Geo BA battles, gear battles on ships. At 5pm is 4 BTL-B Ywing battles, 5 Rebel Ywing battles. At 8 pm just grab extra energy for the 11pm start. Now everyone knows my farming. Let's see where everything is when, let's say the first 7* character not BA is done. Then we can figure drop rates on older v newer characters.

    You’ll need to take inconsideration how many attempts you do. In a 6 energy cantina node you will do more attempts than a 20 energy ship node. If you don’t refresh the node is obviously that the 6 energy toon in cantina will be 7* faster than the other, not because the drop rate is different but because you will simm more one than other
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