September 18, 2020 6:13PM
edited September 18

Hey was wondering if anyone know if drop rates for shards on new characters are different then older ones? I have been farming Chewpio since day 1 farm able free to play. I have only gotten 5 shards total. Most days I get 0 shards. I think 5 shards in 2 weeks is a bit terrible. In turn also farming Geo BA and getting around a 50% shard pull. It just seems like you pull way more shards the older a character is in game.

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## Replies

You can track your data to prove this out. Thia has been done by many players to prove this is the drop rate.

Bad RNG man, RNG Jesus giveth, RNG Jesus taketh away, my guild mate got 13 shards of chewy and 3p0 today from 15 attempts, yesterday he got 1 from 15

Someone else is getting all your shards and have a higher drop rate.

5 shards divided by .33 = 15 attempts. All the other attempts you are calculating for don't count

It's just you having bad RNG.

I personally tracked over 4,000 cantina attempts over a year ago. Varying energy costs, too. You know what? It came out to 36% give or take a few decimal points.

Then why are other people getting different outcomes on the new toons than you? I'm also f2p.

Trolling off of a troll comment is never a good idea.

Track your data and prove it to yourself, much like others have done. It is 33% for each character.

While your RNG sucks, it's still statistically possible. You are out in the three standard deviation range which should only happen about 3% of the time. As a general one standard deviation rule you should have gotten between 15 and 30 shards in your 70 attempts. I have tracked all kinds of shard drop rates for a wide range of toons and the drop rate all tracks to being 33% according to probabilities and statistics regardless of what conspiracy theory you think you have the math proves the 33% drop rate.

For a start, he claims to have farmed Chewpio since he became farmable “for 14+ days”. This is quite the achievement, given that he has only been farmable for 9 days.

So, straight away we’re talking 45 attempts max, not 70.

Secondly, he claims to have “around 50%” on GBA. I know a completely made up stat when I see one.

This is the latest in a long line of drop rate conspiracy posts, that ticks all the usual boxes:

- vague data

- Incorrect data

- small sample set

@dcbfan you need to track your data accurately, and for more than 9 days (which is not 14+ days).

Or you just aren't good at math. At a 33% drop rate and only doing 5 attempts a day you get on average 1.66 shards a day. To go from marque to 7 star you need 280 shards. Getting the 1.66 shards a day it takes 167 days to get 280 shards. 167 days is about 5.5 months.

A 5% drop rate would take 37 months to farm a character with no refreshes.

Exactly this.

That's not the way statistics works.

You are extrapolating from the drops you remember, and calling that "the rate". Just track your data and come back after you have actually recorded your data like others have done.

I highly doubt that you are farming GBA at that rate, have you been recording this, or is that just what you remember?

Bad rng likely won't stay that way for a whole farm so it'll take less time than that.

And you get enough free energy to do 10 cantina attempts a day even on a 16 energy node. So they go twice as fast as a single hard node just from the extra attempts.

82% of all statistics are made up on the spot.

Show your data! 😉

That’s not how RNG or averages work. Each sim has a 33% chance for a shard. It doesn’t matter if you do 1 or 500 sims at once, each one is still 33%. So there’s still a chance to get 0/500.

Also, search the forums and find out how many people have the same self-described issue and then read all the same answers that are on this thread. Or search for that one page that has literally millions of documented sims that show the shard drop rate is around 33%.

You’ll be fine. 5 sims a day will take a long time. That’s how it works for everybody.

You're farming too much. Spending the 25 crystals for one node refresh is well worth it.

You’ll need to take inconsideration how many attempts you do. In a 6 energy cantina node you will do more attempts than a 20 energy ship node. If you don’t refresh the node is obviously that the 6 energy toon in cantina will be 7* faster than the other, not because the drop rate is different but because you will simm more one than other